[2050 solar power 200 GW], JPEA long-term vision

In addition, with the fixed price system (FIT) correction, the transition to the new stage of the accreditation system did not start the sun light is 21 ~ 29 GW, has been completed and the "equivalent cognizance" is expected, all has a capacity of 58 ~ 66 GW.


Total annual shipments (shipments) by 2050

"2050 should be able to achieve 200 GW", according to the Japanese government proposed "by 2050 greenhouse gas emissions by 80%" goal. In order to achieve this goal, "90% of the power supply should not be discharged," CO2 (Environmental province's long-term low-carbon vision), 200 GW is the minimum level of contribution of solar light, it is also possible to increase imports."

By the way, the capacity of solar power generation equipment is 200 GW, equivalent to about 2 of the current domestic electricity supply.

In addition, is it possible to import such a high proportion of solar energy into natural energy into sunlight?. In developed countries with renewable energy sources, there are also areas where natural energy is converted into electricity, with an average annual consumption of more than 40% of electricity, and the policy is likely to exceed 50%". In Japan, the sun is 200 GW, the wind is 75 GW, and the ratio of natural energy to electricity is 30 to 35%.

JPEA named the solar power generation system, which is easily integrated into the power system, "the fourth generation" (PV System 4)". The "first generation", independent type, "second generation" system link type, "third generation" system coordination type, take this as the concept, next "independent, link free type"".

太阳光发电系统的进化 (来源:JPEA“PV OUTLOOK~太阳光发电2050年的黎明》·2017年6月)

Evolution of solar power generation systems

(source: JPEA, "PV, OUTLOOK, solar power, the dawn of 2050", June 2017)

The fourth generation uses battery and so on to achieve the evolution of self consumption mode (system coordination type), and uses AI (Artificial Intelligence) to achieve real-time control, showing the image of  power system stability contribution.

In addition, because the heat is expected to pump technology makes "electrification" heat utilization, the motor vehicle driving energy "electric" of the Department of transportation, at the same time increase renewable energy electricity demand, undertakes to absorb natural energy into electrical energy output function.

In addition, with the revision of the FIT policy, a total of 58~66 GW was announced. It is expected that solar power has not yet run (49 G or so), 20 ~ 27.7 GW failure, 21~29 GW still waiting to be identified.

However, the Secretary General Masukawa Takeaki JPEA said: "the case has been running, even if ultimately be identified, who believe that not running parts are running very difficult, actually may be lower than the total capacity is 58 ~ 66 GW solar energy import".

(Nikkei BP Institute of clean technology, gold, gold and silver)

[Nikkei technology online, published in July 11, 2017]